The Numbers (2025, Metro Vancouver)
For a 2,000 sq ft Metro Vancouver home with an existing hydronic heating system:
Gas boiler (Navien NCB-240E): - Installed cost: $6,500 - FortisBC rebate: -$1,000 - Net installed: $5,500 - Annual gas cost (estimate): $1,400–$1,800 - Annual maintenance: $175 - Total year-1 cost: ~$7,475
Cold-climate air-source heat pump (Mitsubishi Zuba Central or Daikin equivalent): - Installed cost: $14,000–$18,000 (including air handler conversion from hydronic) - CleanBC rebate: -$3,000–$6,500 - Net installed: $7,500–$15,000 - Annual electricity cost (estimate): $1,000–$1,400 - Annual maintenance: $175 - Total year-1 cost: $8,675–$16,575
Note: The heat pump comparison assumes conversion from hydronic to forced-air — the most common scenario. A heat pump working within a compatible low-temperature hydronic system changes the economics significantly.
Comfort: Radiant vs Forced Air
This is where the comparison gets personal. Gas boiler–powered radiant heat (in-floor or baseboard hydronic) is widely considered the most comfortable residential heating available. Heat is distributed evenly at floor level, there's no air movement, no dryness, and rooms warm gradually without temperature swings.
Forced-air heat pump systems heat air and circulate it through ducts. The result is faster temperature response but less even distribution, perceptible air movement, and a tendency to dry the air. In a well-designed duct system the comfort gap narrows, but most homeowners who've lived with both report preferring radiant.
If your home has in-floor radiant heating, the comparison changes: a heat pump paired with a low-temperature hydronic distribution system can replicate most of the comfort benefit. This requires a heat pump capable of producing 45–50°C supply water — only the latest cold-climate models achieve this.
Carbon Footprint Comparison in BC
BC's electricity grid is approximately 98% renewable (hydro + wind + geothermal), making a heat pump effectively carbon-neutral to operate. Natural gas, even at high efficiency, produces CO₂ — approximately 180–220 kg per gigajoule burned.
For a typical Metro Vancouver home, replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump eliminates roughly 2.5–4 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per year. If environmental impact is your primary driver, the heat pump wins unambiguously.
However: the carbon embedded in manufacturing a new heat pump system (particularly the refrigerant, copper, and electronics) is significant. Lifecycle analysis suggests 5–8 years before the operational carbon savings offset the manufacturing footprint. A gas boiler that runs another 10+ years on existing infrastructure has a lower near-term lifecycle carbon footprint than a new heat pump install — though the heat pump wins decisively over 20+ years.
Our Recommendation for 2025 BC Homeowners
If your existing boiler is under 15 years old and running well: keep it, maintain it annually, and revisit the heat pump decision in 5 years as the technology and incentives improve.
If your boiler is 15+ years old and needs replacement: evaluate your home's specific situation. Hydronic-only homes (no existing ductwork) strongly favour a gas boiler replacement unless you're willing to invest in the full HVAC conversion. Homes with existing forced-air ductwork have a genuine choice.
If you're building new or doing a major renovation: the heat pump conversation is different. New construction can be designed for low-temperature heat pump compatibility from the start, eliminating the retrofit cost penalty.